5 questions will shape economic outcomes

It is possible to draw conclusions from these outcomes and define three distinct phases: flatten, fight, and future

Many leaders are asking the same questions:

• How should I forecast my revenues?

• How should I adjust my budget?

• When will this be over, and when will we return to “normal”?

Distinct phases

First, there is the “Flatten” phase, in which countries or cities lock down to flatten the virus’s exponential growth curve. Second comes the “Fight” phase, during which a geography “Restarts” its economy while maintaining a low rate of infection, while still running the risk of having to implement further lockdowns. Finally, we are anticipating a “Future” phase, which begins only after a vaccine or highly effective treatment has been developed and deployed

Each potential scenario will be characterized by five outcome measures

• How long is the Flatten phase?

• How deep does the Flatten phase go?

• How long is the Fight phase?

• How deep does the Fight phase go?

• What level will the economy achieve during the Future phase?

To understand what the future might hold and how we can shape those outcomes, we need scenarios to bound the uncertainty and help us understand the underlying drivers of outcomes. While COVID-19 trajectories vary widely, it is possible to draw conclusions from these outcomes and define three distinct phases: flatten, fight, and future.